Week 33 — The Return

The biggest story of this week is Trump potentially taking us to war, after ordering strikes on Iran. I have urged readers of my Substack to follow the facts, and maintain a healthy amount of skepticism, because on face value, and knowing Trump’s patterns, a lot of things we have been told initially do not make sense.

First off, was there any doubt after the way Trump has pushed boundaries and grabbed for power during his second regime that he would act unilaterally? Was it constitutional? Probably not. But as we cover in this project, breaking norms in turn makes them the new normal, and other presidents have done the same. What differentiated Trump is that he left senior members of Congress who are Democrats in the dark — that is a first, and a highly partisan act. And as we have covered, Republicans have abdicated their role as a check on power, neutering the legislative branch, so they likely weren’t consulted, but rather told.

What still doesn’t make sense to me is, why now? The regime has tried to pass this off as a well thought out strategy in advance, with a “ruse” or “misdirection” of Trump giving two weeks for diplomacy. In my five years of covering him, this has never been how he operates. He is impulsive, chaotic, and prone to acting based on his last conversation, which in this case, would have occurred at his Bedminster golf club, right before he gave the order. Notably, as I wrote about in my Wag the Dog? article, the strike did come at a time when Trump finds his approval at its lowest level during the second regime, and his approval on handling immigration dropping by six points in the aftermath of Los Angeles, and nearing the 80 day mark of his 90 day tariff war pause without a single finalized deal to show for it.

We also still need the facts behind what intelligence he based his decision on, the success of the mission, and what’s next. Trump is desperately trying to control the narrative here, but the facts are coming out and getting in his way. It was also notable with this attack that so many competent people are gone, and roles have gone unfilled, leaving Trump with a small circle of yes men, even in times of crisis.

1. WAPO reported 50 years after Watergate, when Congress passed a wave of laws to rein in future presidents, Trump is challenging and disregarding reforms on transparency, spending, conflicts of interest, and more. Some say Trump has gone further than Richard Nixon.
2. Trump has ignored safeguards to prevent the unjustified firings of federal workers; he forced out two FBI directors who are supposed to serve 10-year terms; and he defied the Impoundment Control Act, which is supposed to prevent presidents from dismantling federal agencies.
3. Inspectors general were also part of his post-Watergate reform, with Trump firing 16, and disregarding the required 30 day notice. Trump also broadly disregards the principle of not using the federal government to enrich himself. The Supreme Court will likely enshrine some of his challenges.
4. A whistleblower complaint by Erez Reuveni, a Justice Department lawyer who was fired, said senior DOJ official Emil Bove voiced his intent to disobey court orders as others stonewalled and misled judges. Trump has nominated Bove to serve as an appellate judge.
5. While the regime tried to portray Reuveni as a disgruntled employee, the filing included a trail of emails, texts, and phone records which would support his version of events, and notes that he had defended controversial policies of Trump during the first regime.
6. On Sunday, the federal magistrate judge in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case ordered his release on bail, but conceded he was likely to be detained for immigration violations. The judge said the DOJ’s case had serious problems and relied heavily on deals with informants.
7. The judge also cast doubt on the narratives of Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi of Abrego Garcia posing a threat and being a human trafficker, saying allegations came from “at least three, if not four or more, levels of hearsay” and carried “no weight” legally.
8. After the ruling, DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin called Abrego Garcia “a dangerous criminal illegal alien” and added, “he will never go free on American soil.” His lawyers, including a former prosecutor in the office that filed the indictment, castigated McLaughlin in a court filing.
9. On Sunday, the Senate parliamentarian rejected a measure added by Senate Republicans to Trump’s tax bill to avoid the filibuster, which would target the preliminary injunctions and temporary restraining orders issued by federal judges on Trump’s directives.
10. Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee are holding hearings on former president Joseph Biden’s mental health, six months after he left office. The committee heard from three witnesses who were not part of the Biden administration. Democrats boycotted the hearings.
11. Trump called for the appointment of a special prosecutor to investigate the 2020 election in a post on Truth Social, repeating his false claim that the 2020 election was marred by massive fraud, posting, “The evidence is MASSIVE and OVERWHELMING.”
12. Politico reported Ed Artau, a Trump nominee to be a district court judge in Florida, had lobbied for that appointment and was already meeting with Senate staff weeks after he ruled in Trump’s favor on his case against members of the Pulitzer Prize Board.
13. On Wednesday, the Justice Department planned to slash the number of inspectors who monitor federally licensed gun dealers from 800 to 259, severely limiting efforts to identify businesses that sell guns to criminals. The cuts came days after an act of political violence.
14. On Wednesday, the Trump regime instructed the national suicide prevention hotline to stop offering specialized support for LGBTQ people through the Trevor Project, saying those callers can use the hotline’s general services.
15. Five Democratic senators hosted a gay pride concert in a small theater at the Kennedy Center with performances by Broadway artists including Javier Muñoz, a “Hamilton” alum who sang “Satisfied,” in a symbolic protest of Trump taking over the institution.
16. Hungary’s LGBTQ community won support from the embassies of Britain, France, Germany, and 30 other countries for a pride march. The U.S. did not sign the statement as Trump aligns with Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who denounced it as potentially harmful to children.
17. On Wednesday, CNN reported Homeland Security Sec. Kristi Noem has ordered that every contract and grant over $100,000 must be approved by her, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Coast Guard, Secret Service, and Federal Emergency Management Agency.
18. FEMA officials worry the delay caused by this would disrupt the distribution of emergency funds during natural disasters, with one official saying Noem’s directive “is effectively preventing the department from functioning.”
19. NPR reported that Jeremy Greenberg, the country’s top disaster coordinator who led the National Response Coordination Center at FEMA, resigned amid Trump’s efforts to eliminate the agency.
20. On Thursday, Trump posted on Truth Social that he approved disaster relief for Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, and North Carolina, after previously denying requests from North Carolina and Arkansas. A week prior, Trump said it should be up to states going forward, not FEMA.
21. The state of Florida said it is building a detention facility for migrants nicknamed “Alligator Alcatraz,” a remote facility composed of large tents. The facility will cost $450 million a year to run, but a DHS spokesperson said the state can get partial reimbursement from FEMA.
22. On Wednesday at around midnight, Trump again attacked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him on Truth Social “the WORST” and a “real dummy,” and quoting another official, saying Powell “should cut rates or quit.”
23. On Friday, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell for the sixth straight month, triggering a recession signal, citing consumer pessimism, weak new orders for manufactured goods, an uptick in jobless benefits claims, and a drop in building permit applications.
24. On Saturday, Toyota announced that it would raise U.S. auto prices by an average of $270 starting in July, citing Trump’s 25% tariff on imported vehicles and auto parts.
25. The Bureau of Labor Statistics found about 400,000 manufacturing jobs are currently unfilled, with one qualified candidate for every 20 positions, as fewer young people want these jobs. Trump’s deportations and other actions are likely to exacerbate the problem.
26. WAPO reported toy prices are rising at their fastest pace on record as a result of Trump’s tariffs, with prices rising 2.2% from April to May, with more increases expected. More than 75% of toys sold in the U.S. come from China.
27. NBC News reported Trump is increasingly relying on a small circle as he considers striking Iran, including Vice President JD Vance, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with people outside his regime.
28. Trump has sidelined Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who has vocally opposed U.S. strikes in Iran, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is not part of his decision making process. Trump also met with former adviser Stephen Bannon at the White House.
29. On Thursday, the Los Angeles Dodgers organization blocked federal immigration agents from entering their stadium, after they requested permission to access the parking lots. Protestors stood outside the gate, holding signs that read, “ICE out of L.A.” and “ICE go home.”
30. On Friday, the Dodgers organization pledged $1 million in direct financial assistance for families of immigrants impacted by the surge in the Trump regime’s detentions and deportations in the LA region.
31. Later Thursday, a federal appeals court unanimously ruled that Trump “likely acted within his authority” in federalizing the California National Guard, citing violence during the protests gave Trump a basis for federalizing the guard.
32. On Saturday, Narciso Barranco, 48, was violently apprehended by ICE in Santa Ana while working at his landscaping job. Barranco, who had been in the U.S. since 1990, is the father of three U.S. Marines. DHS claimed an alleged assault, although video footage contradicted them.
33. On Thursday, Juneteenth, which became a federal holiday under Biden, Trump posted on Truth Social, “Soon we’ll end up having a holiday for every once working day of the year,” adding, “It must change if we are going to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
34. Although during his first regime, Trump issued a statement on Juneteenth for three years, before it was a federal holiday, this time the White House did not in any way acknowledge the holiday.
35. On Friday, the Senegalese Basketball Federation said in a statement that it was canceling the Senegal women’s national basketball team’s 10-day training camp in the U.S., after the U.S. rejected visas for five players, six staff members, and a ministerial delegation.
36. On Friday, a federal judge ruled that the Trump regime must release Mahmoud Khalil on bail. It was unclear if the regime would do so, with a DHS spokesperson saying, “An immigration judge, not a district judge, has the authority to decide if Mr. Khalil should be released or detained.”
37. Shortly after, Khalil, who was the first high-profile non-citizen activist detained, was released. Also released in recent weeks: Tufts University student Rumeysa Ozturk; Mohsen Mahdawi, a Palestinian student; and Georgetown University scholar Badar Khan Suri.
38. On Monday, the Supreme Court ruled it would allow the Trump regime to deport migrants to countries other than their own, pausing a lower court ruling giving them a chance to show they would face the risk of torture in places where they have no connection.
39. The order gave no reason, making it impossible to understand the majority’s thinking, on what critics call the shadow docket. Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote that the majority had endorsed lawlessness, ignoring a federal law that requires due process.
40. Later Monday, lawyers for the men held in Djibouti asked U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy to continue blocking their deportation to South Sudan. The judge said their motion was unnecessary, saying the Supreme Court had blocked a different ruling.
41. The regime accused the judge of “unprecedented defiance” of a Supreme Court ruling, and in a filing asked the Supreme Court to clarify its decision. The regime also suggested that Judge Murphy should be kicked off the case.
42. Later Friday, a federal judge ruled in favor of 20 Democratic attorneys general, blocking the Department of Transportation from withholding billions of dollars in funding to states unless they complied with the Trump regime’s demands on immigration enforcement.
43. On Wednesday, the State Department announced that it plans to review the social media history of foreigners who apply for student and scholar visas. Applicants will need to make their social media history public, and they will be screened for “hostility” toward the U.S.
44. On Friday, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction against Trump’s DHS’s push to force Harvard out of the international student program, the Student and Visitor Exchange Program, which would have impacted 7,000 students.
45. Shortly after, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was close to “a deal” with Harvard, saying, “They have acted extremely appropriately during these negotiations, and appear to be committed to doing what is right,”
46. On Monday, the same judge blocked a Trump proclamation barring international students from Harvard, using a law designed to safeguard national security. The judge said that presidential power was intended to be used against foreign enemies, not international students.
47. On Friday, a federal judge ruled in favor of Brown and Cornell universities, MIT, and several other schools, striking down a National Science Foundation cap of 15% on indirect cost rates for government-funded research. The schools were represented by Jenner & Block.
48. NYT reported that the Trump regime’s cuts to higher education are impacting a broad set of universities, and will lead to state universities to increase out of state tuition, layoffs at public and private universities, programs being eliminated, and other cuts on campuses.
49. NYT reported Europeans are concerned that Trump will use U.S. tech dominance against them. Microsoft suspended the email account of an International Criminal Court prosecutor in the Netherlands investigating Israel in order to comply with Trump’s executive order.
50. On Friday, the Trump regime sent layoff notices to more than 600 employees at Voice of America, shrinking the staff of the news organization to under 200, roughly one-seventh of its staffing level before Trump’s cuts.
51. On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he considered Russians and Ukrainians to be one people “in that sense the whole of Ukraine is ours.” Trump continued to do little to defend Ukraine.
52. On Friday, asked about the assessment delivered by Director of National Intelligence Gabbard to Congress in March, that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader [Ali] Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program,” Trump said, “She’s wrong.”
53. Days before, asked by reporters about her testimony about U.S. intelligence findings, Trump said, “I don’t care what she said, I think they were very close to having one.”
54. Later Friday, Gabbard posted on X, “The dishonest media is intentionally taking my testimony out of context…to manufacture division,” saying the U.S. has intelligence that “Iran is at the point that it can produce a nuclear weapon within weeks to months.”
55. On Saturday, Trump announced on his social media platform, in which he has a 52% ownership stake, that he had ordered military strikes against Iran: “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.”
56. Trump’s initial post, made shortly before 8 PM ET, prime time, ended with, “Thank you for your attention to this matter.” Trump then posted, “This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISTAEL (sic), AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR. THANK YOU!”
57. Trump addressed the nation at 10 PM ET, claiming, “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,” adding, “There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran.” Trump was flanked by VP Vance, Rubio, and Hegseth.
58. The strikes drew mixed reactions, with most Democrats and three Republicans calling it unconstitutional. The War Powers Resolution allows a president to order military acts with a “declaration of war,” a “specific statutory authorization” from Congress, or “an attack” on the U.S.
59. WSJ reported that Trump gave the final okay for the strikes from his Bedminster golf club in New Jersey, hours before the attack, and less than two days after saying he would give two weeks for diplomacy.
60. Trump initially shifted his opinion on U.S. involvement once the success of Israel’s opening salvo became clear, and Trump started to take credit for supplying Israel with U.S. weapons, saying their strikes would compel Iran to make a deal.
61. The Trump regime said Trump and staffers were in contact with Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune before the strikes. This marked the first time only the party in power was consulted.
62. The regime conceded Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was not told until a little less than an hour before the strikes, and given limited details, including not naming who would be attacked, and claimed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries could not be reached.
63.  Sen. Mark Warner and Rep. Jim Himes, the top Democrats on the Senate and House intelligence committees, part of the Gang of Eight, were told after the strikes had occurred.
64. In a memo to lawmakers, Trump claimed the strikes were “limited in scope and purpose” and were carried out under the president’s authority “to protect United States citizens both at home and abroad,” and were “consistent with the War Powers Resolution.”
65. On Sunday morning, in a press briefing, Hegseth repeated Trump’s claim, saying, “Thanks to President Trump’s bold and visionary leadership,” Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been “obliterated.”
66. Hegseth also claimed, “The operation President Trump planned was bold and it was brilliant.” ABC News reported the offensive action against Iran had been practiced with Israel during the Biden administration.
67. On Sunday, NYT reported that Israeli assessments days before the strike, including satellite images released by Maxar Technologies, showed 16 cargo trucks positioned near an entrance of Fordo. It was unclear what, if anything, was removed from the facility.
68. Both Vance and Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, acknowledged on Sunday that they did not know how much of Iran’s uranium stockpile had been hit by the strikes, with Vance saying only that Iran’s weapons had been set back substantially.
69. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the impact of the U.S. strikes was still being clarified, but said Iran had “suffered very severe blows,” falling far short of Trump and Hegseth’s claims.
70. On Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social that “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran,” adding, “Obliteration is an accurate term!” Pentagon officials described the damage as “severe.”
71. Trump also, for the first time, openly called for regime change in Iran, a switch in objectives, posting on Truth Social, “if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”
72. On Monday, Iran fired multiple missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Trump first responded by attacking the media, posting on Truth Social, “The sites that we hit in Iran were totally destroyed…Only the Fake News would say anything different in order to try and demean.”
73. Trump also misgendered Anderson Cooper, a CNN journalist who is LGBTQ, calling him “Allison Cooper of Fake News CNN.” Trump added, “It never ends with the sleazebags in the Media, and that’s why their Ratings are at an ALL TIME LOW — ZERO CREDIBILITY!” and called the media “sleezebags.”
74. Trump also posted that the Iranian barrage was “a very weak response,” calling it a gesture toward peace, and adding, “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!” He thanked the Iranians for “giving us early notice.”
75. Shortly after 6 PM ET, Trump announced on Truth Social that Iran and Israel had agreed to a cease-fire, catching senior regime officials by surprise. Israel had not yet confirmed a cease-fire, and three hours after his social media post was still striking in Iran.
76. Shortly after 9 PM ET, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, also said in a post on social media that there was no cease-fire agreement. He added if Israel stopped its attacks on Iran, Iran would also stop firing. “As of now, there is NO ‘agreement.’”
77. On Tuesday, asked about Israel and Iran continuing to attack each other despite his claims of a cease-fire, Trump told reporters, “They have been fighting so long and so hard, that they don’t know what the f*ck they are doing,” adding, “I’m gonna see if I can stop it.”
78. Shortly after, en route to a NATO summit, Trump posted on Truth Social a screenshot of a message from Mark Rutte, secretary general of NATO, saying, “Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran,’’ calling it “truly extraordinary and something no one else dared to do.”
79. On his flight to the summit, asked about his commitment to NATO’s Article 5 Trump demurred, saying, “depends on your definition,” adding, “I’m committed to saving lives. I’m committed to life and safety.”
80. On Tuesday, scheduled House and Senate briefings from White House intelligence officials on the U.S. strikes in Iran was postponed. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said, “I was given no explanation for this delay.”
81. Shortly after, Rep. Jeffries said at a news conference, “There have been no facts that have been presented to the American people or to the Congress to confirm that Iran’s nuclear program has been completely and totally obliterated.”
82. On Tuesday, a preliminary classified report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said the strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, setting Iran’s program back by just a few months.
83. The report also found that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes, resulting in the attack destroying little of the nuclear material, with Iran retaining control of almost all of its nuclear material.
84. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called the assessment “flat-out wrong,” adding, “The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots,” repeating that it was “total obliteration.”
85. Later Tuesday, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, told NBC News that it is “too early” to say if the U.S. destroyed Iran’s nuclear sites.
86. On Tuesday night, members of Senate leadership and the Senate Intelligence Committee, of both parties, were able to see the Defense Intelligence Agency report in a closed setting. Ranking member Sen. Mark Warner said, “I’ve got a lot of questions for the administration.”
87. On Wednesday, Trump pushed back on the leaked report, claiming Iran’s facilities were “obliterated” and set back by decades, saying, “That hit ended the war. I don’t want to use an example of Hiroshima. I don’t want to use an example of Nagasaki, but that was essentially the same thing.”
88. Trump also rejected reports that Iran may have moved enriched uranium before the U.S. strike, saying, “All of the nuclear stuff is down there” in the tunnels of nuclear facilities. He blamed the news media for questioning the effectiveness of the strikes.
89. Joining Trump, Rubio told reporters that the Iranians were set back for years rather than by only a few months, based on the belief that a conversion facility was struck, “You can’t do a nuclear weapon without a conversion facility,” adding, “It’s gone. It’s wiped out.”
90. Hegseth told reporters the report was leaked for political reasons, and said, “We are doing a leak investigation with the FBI now,” claiming the media was “trying to spin it to try and make the president look bad when this was an overwhelming success.”
91. The Israel Atomic Energy Commission said in a statement that the U.S. strike on Fordo “destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable.” The statement was first released by the White House, and later confirmed by Netanyahu’s office.
92. NYT reported that indiscriminate cuts by DOGE and Trump to funding and staffers for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has left Americans and U.S. infrastructure at risk. Staffing cuts also meant the loss of decades of experience.
93. On Tuesday, Edward Coristine, who dubbed himself “Big Balls,” resigned from DOGE. During his months at DOGE, Coristine, who is 19, oversaw a long list of government agencies, slashing spending and firing personnel, and also worked on projects for Musk.
94. In recent days the FBI directed employees to assist with protecting cybersecurity, after many who had been working on cybersecurity or counterintelligence were redirected to assist ICE with routine deportations.
95. A CNN poll taken after the strikes found Americans disapprove of the attack, 56% to 44%. 55% of Americans express little or no trust in Trump to make the right decisions, 45% trust him, and 65% said he should get approval from Congress. The poll split along party lines.
96. On Monday, liberal advocacy organization Media Matters sued the Federal Trade Commission, saying the agency was waging a “campaign of retribution” on behalf of the Trump regime and Elon Musk.
97. On Monday, Trump’s Agriculture Department announced it would strip protections for nearly 59 million acres of the National Forest System, including 9 million acres in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, freeing up roughly 30% of the land in the system.
98. On Wednesday, Health and Human Services Sec. Robert Kennedy Jr. said the U.S. would withdraw funding from Gavi, a global organization that helps purchase vaccines for children in poor countries, claiming without evidence that they “ignore the science” in immunization.